BTC rainbow TAM Gompertz

The classic Bitcoin rainbow, reworked with improved methods. Same nine colours — cheap at the bottom, euphoria at the top — around a better centre line, plus a 50/50 cycle sketch.

TAM Gompertz says there should be no significant peak after the 2028 halving: each cut adds fewer new coins, and by then that issuance bump is vanishing. We speculate that a psychological four-year rhythm may still linger — traders acting on the memory of the old cycle, not on a flood of new coin. The teal 50/50 line is that compromise: half vanishing issuance, half the fading habit. The 50/50 sketch still places a milder peak around 5 Aug 2029.

As of 2026-09-15: $71,991 · Accumulate · T $121,932 · P/T 0.59× · est. peak 5 Aug 2029

How to read

  • Orange is Bitcoin’s price.
  • The dashed white line (T) is a slow fair-value sketch: Bitcoin’s share of a gold-scale market, divided by coins in circulation. It is not a price target.
  • Colours are mood versus T. Purple/blue has historically been cheap; green still cheap; yellow hold; orange/red a mania. Bands narrow as halvings add less new coin and leftover adoption shrinks.
  • The teal 50/50 line is a typical cycle around T: half the vanishing halving-issuance bump, half a fading four-year psychological wave.
  • Orange diamonds are detected cycle peaks; the teal diamond is the 50/50 estimated peak after 2028. Triangles are smoothed lows. Dotted orange lines mark halvings.
  • The top chart is the whole history (log scale, 2011–2030). The bottom chart is since 2024 (linear).

How to use

Read the header colour and the P/T number. 1.0 means price equals T; past cycle lows clustered near 0.4–0.5×. Compare the orange price to T and to the 50/50 line. Use it as a temperature check, not a buy/sell button. This page is a snapshot, not investment advice.

USD via a fixed 0.92 EUR per USD (model FX, not a live rate).

X: @DrJonAI